What is Uncertainty?

Uncertainty refers to a situation where the outcome or consequences of an event are unknown, unpredictable, or cannot be reliably estimated. It involves a lack of clarity or certainty about future events, conditions, or outcomes, which may arise due to various factors such as incomplete information, complexity, randomness, ambiguity, or novelty.

Features of Uncertainty include:

• Unknown Future: Uncertainty arises when there is a lack of knowledge or information about future events or outcomes. This can be due to incomplete data, unforeseen circumstances, or the inability to accurately predict future trends or developments.
• Unpredictability: Uncertainty involves events or situations that are inherently unpredictable or difficult to forecast. This unpredictability makes it challenging to anticipate the likelihood or timing of future events and their potential consequences.
• Ambiguity: Uncertainty often involves ambiguity or vagueness about the nature, scope, or implications of future events. This ambiguity can stem from conflicting information, multiple possible interpretations, or complex interdependencies between different factors.
• Risk of Error: Uncertainty introduces a risk of error or miscalculation in decision-making, as outcomes may deviate from expectations or assumptions. This risk can lead to suboptimal choices, unexpected outcomes, or unanticipated consequences.

Risk and Uncertainty are often used interchangeably. Risk involves situations where the probability of outcomes can be estimated or calculated based on available data or models; whereas, Uncertainty arises when outcomes are unknown or unpredictable due to lack of information or complexity.